Political Saber Rattling and Rumors of War

Some of you may have been following the conflict between Colombia and Ecuador (and Venezuela although it does not involve them). First, I’d like to calm any fears. We are not at war, and war is highly unlikely. Ecuador is not on the “hot-spots” list posted by the State Department. Really, all this amounts to is saber rattling and political posturing. Although, I think there are some real grievances that underlie this conflict.

A cautionary note: this blog entry does not involve anything about my life down here. It is merely a report on the political situation and conflict with Colombia. It is kind of long, but that’s because the conflict is complicated, and I want to do it justice.

First a brief synopsis of events. Last week, Colombia attacked FARC, the leftist leading guerrilla movement (originally) and drug-trafficking terrorist organization (currently), in Ecuadorian territory. They only advanced 1 mile over the border, and they succeeded in killing one of the leaders along with 21 other guerrilla fighters. Plus, they recovered a crucial laptop from the FARC leadership. This laptop supposedly has documented evidence of Chavez (president of Venezuela) giving $300 million to FARC, of the FARC pursuing chemical material to make dirty bombs, and meetings between FARC and Ecuador and Venezuela.

Arguably, this is why Chavez has led the political counter-attack on Colombia, in an attempt to cover up his complicity with the terrorists. He led by severing diplomatic contacts with Colombia and kicked out Colombia’s ambassador, and by stopping trade with Colombia. Ecuador’s president, Rafael Correa, followed suit by severing diplomatic ties and by getting all huffy about Colombia violating Ecuador’s sovereignty.

It is entirely possible that all of these connections between FARC and Ecuador and Venezuela is a result of the hostage situation that has been playing out in recent months. Venezuela and Ecuador both were helping to negotiate the hostage release. Venezuela was not playing the part of un-biased mediator, so Chavez was dismissed from negotiations. But in January, Ecuador’s Minister of the Interior (or something) went to help negotiate. This is the same time as the supposed meeting between Ecuador and FARC that Colombia is accusing Ecuador of. Furthermore, someone said that Chavez paid $300M for the release of the hostages. This would explain the money payment, but it still doesn’t seem like a proper use of Venezuelan money. (Note: Chavez received $192,000 from FARC in 1992 while in jail after a failed coup. The connection gets deeper.)

Since the attack, Ecuador and Venezuela have sent troupes to the border with Colombia as a show of force. Venezuela says that if Colombia carries out a similar mission in Venezuela, there will be war. But that is ludicrous, because Venezuela has no chance of winning. Colombia has been receiving $600M a year under Plan Colombia to help fight FARC and drug-trafficking in Colombia. Does that seem like a good use of American tax payer dollars? Incidentally, Colombia began its assault on FARC with Plan Colombia. Before Plan Colombia, FARC was stronger militarily and could have taken over the government (apparently), but now Colombia has stronger fire-power. Now, to escape the attacks, FARC crosses the Ecuadorian and Venezuelan borders to rest, regroup, and then re-launch their own assaults in Colombia. Because of this, Colombia is claiming that Ecuador is harboring terrorists.

So why all the anger? Colombia was defending its own national security and might have even done Ecuador a favor. Chavez is not Ecuador, Colombia, or FARC, so this really doesn’t concern him, unless he really has been helping out FARC. Well…there is actually a hidden undercurrent between Colombia and Ecuador that might be causing a lot of the tension.

According to a Colombian living in Ecuador, Ecuador and Colombia were great friends in the past, and had a very healthy relationship. This friendship deteriorated in the last 5 years or so since Colombians have been entering Ecuador in large numbers. This immigration is hard to explain because Ecuador's economy is not strong. In the last decade, the economy collapsed along with all the banks, forcing the switch to the dollar. Now, 1 million Ecuadorians are sending back remittances from Spain. So why would Colombians want to come to Ecuador?

Notice that relations started to deteriorate at about the time that Plan Colombia began. My Spanish teacher, who used to work for the American Embassy, says that the deterioration in good-feelings has to do with the conflict with FARC. FARC has terrorized the south of Colombia near Ecuador's border, forcing civilians to flee the conflict. These civilians are posed with one of two options: move to another Colombian city and try to settle down, or temporarily go to Ecuador where there are free refugee camps until they can return to their land. Returning to their land is the ultimate goal, so they choose the cheaper option. Thus, Ecuador has been receiving a lot of immigrants of late.

This has upset lots of Ecuadorians, because they are being forced to pay for the consequences of the conflict in Colombia, and Ecuador doesn't have any spare resources. A refugee camp doesn’t have to be bad news. But Ecuador is not receiving any financial help from the world or Colombia (or at least not enough). Plus, many of these Colombians have resorted to crime to make a living, which causes bitter feelings. Finally, since Ecuador’s economy is weak, many Ecuadorians think that Colombians are going to take their jobs (notice a parallel?).

Similarly, Ecuador does not want to be drawn into the conflict with the guerrillas. They see this as Colombia's problem, and they don't understand why they have to once again pay for Colombia's war. By attacking the FARC in Ecuador, not only has Colombia violated Ecuador's sovereignty, but they have also made them accomplices with Colombia and therefore the enemy of FARC. This opens Ecuador to retaliation from FARC. Thus, Ecuador wants the fight to stay on the other side of the border.

Unfortunately for Ecuador, they don't really have the option to stay uninvolved in this situation. Ecuador does not have a military large enough to defend its entire border with Colombia, especially in the jungle, so the FARC will cross the border to avoid attacks by Colombia. This gives Ecuador two options: help Colombia defeat the guerrillas, or do nothing and give unofficial amnesty to the guerrillas.

Personally, I think Ecuador should help Colombia, but they should not have to use their own financial resources. Colombia should give part of that $600M to Ecuador to compensate them. Ecuador will suffer casualties, and that is something that will be unavoidable, but at least it prevents the FARC from permanently setting up camp in Ecuador, the worst case scenario for this wonderful (despite all the political posturing) country.

One last comment about Plan Colombia. $600M a year is a lot of money. Ultimately, it is money to bolster Colombia’s military and fight drugs. But considering the results, their must be a better solution. Under Plan Colombia, the military has been crop-dusting a serious chemical on Coca crops to eliminate them. But this chemical kills all plants, not just the targeted plants. Plus, this chemical has been getting into the water in Colombia and Ecuador, causing grave and fatal diseases. Plan Colombia has led to a deterioration of foreign relations and caused a perpetuation of the civil war in Colombia. Might soft power be a better solution? Imagine if Colombia used the $600M to subsidize farmers so that they didn’t have to turn to the lucrative coca farming in order to make a living. Might it be a better plan to convince farmers to plant other crops and working with them rather than destroying their land? Not planting coca would be the most accurate and productive way to eliminate this necessary ingredient for cocaine.

Now, I’d like to leave you with one last question to consider. Some Ecuadorians believe that Colombia should not allow the FARC to leave the country. It is Colombia's problem, so it should remain within their borders. So who's responsibility is it to seal the border. Does Colombia need to prevent people from leaving or does Ecuador need to prevent people from entering?

The Economist has a good article about the situation. You can check it out here. I made a comment on the article. My pen name is Jeff08. Check it out.

But here is an even better article.